5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 17 May 2012 02:32:20 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 17 May 2012 02:31:43 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2012 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 170231 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012 800 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2012 THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGES WITH LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES. A STRONG BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RECENTLY FORMED OVER A SMALL AREA JUST NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON DVORAK RULES AND THE ASCAT PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY...WHICH INDICATED THAT ALETTA WAS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN IT LOOKED. DRY AIR AND SOUTHERLY SHEAR ARE LIKELY TO TAKE THEIR TOLL ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND ALETTA SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION VERY SOON...AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS OR LESS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MOST RECENT LGEM RUN AND IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST. INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES WESTWARD...280/8...FOR THE TIME BEING. A WEAKNESS IN THE MID- TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ALETTA SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTERWARDS...A BROAD LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IS LIKELY TO CARRY ALETTA...OR ITS REMNANT...EASTWARD OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE SYSTEM LOSES ITS IDENTITY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 11.5N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 12.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 12.6N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 13.2N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 13.6N 114.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0000Z 14.0N 113.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/0000Z 13.5N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH

GIS Data last updated Thu, 17 May 2012 02:31:35 GMT

GIS Data last updated Thu, 17 May 2012 02:31:35 GMT

GIS Data last updated Thu, 17 May 2012 02:31:33 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC THU MAY 17 2012 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 170231 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012 0300 UTC THU MAY 17 2012 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 3 9 22 25 36 35 NA TROP DEPRESSION 68 52 49 43 41 40 NA TROPICAL STORM 29 38 28 30 22 24 NA HURRICANE X 1 1 2 1 1 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 1 2 1 1 NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 25KT 25KT 20KT 20KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 800 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2012 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 170231 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012 800 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2012 ...ALETTA LIKELY TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 114.3W ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.3 WEST. ALETTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 0300 UTC THU MAY 17 2012 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 170231 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012 0300 UTC THU MAY 17 2012 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 114.3W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 114.3W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 114.0W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 12.0N 115.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.6N 115.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.2N 115.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.6N 114.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.0N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 13.5N 111.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 114.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162331
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ALETTA...LOCATED ABOUT 830 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 May 2012 20:45:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 May 2012 20:32:43 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2012 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 162044 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012 200 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2012 THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND NOW CONSISTS OF A SHRINKING BALL OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A DISCONNECTED BAND TO THE EAST. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS...INDICATIVE THAT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR MAY FINALLY BE TAKING A TOLL ON THE CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 2.5 AT 1800 UTC...IT APPEARS AS IF A WEAKENING TREND MAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...ASSUMING THAT THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED A BIT SINCE A 1643 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A COUPLE OF 40-KT VECTORS. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR PERSISTING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS ALETTA MOVES INTO A REGION DOMINATED BY AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AND DRIER AIR MASS. THESE TWO SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE FACTORS SHOULD HASTEN THE DEMISE OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR ALETTA TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. CENTER FIXES FROM SEVERAL MICROWAVE PASSES THIS MORNING AND RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ALETTA HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A MORE WESTERLY MOTION...270/08...THAN INDICATED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. UNDER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE... ALETTA SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE STORM ERODING AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE TRACK OF THE STORM TO TURN NORTHWARD WITHIN 36 HOURS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THEN TOWARD THE EAST AS IT BECOME EMBEDDED IN ANOMALOUS LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS AND A BIT MORE EASTWARD/FASTER AT LATER FORECAST TIMES...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED INWARD BASED UPON THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 11.4N 113.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 11.7N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 12.4N 115.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 13.1N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 13.6N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1800Z 14.0N 113.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1800Z 14.0N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

GIS Data last updated Wed, 16 May 2012 20:44:50 GMT

GIS Data last updated Wed, 16 May 2012 20:44:50 GMT

GIS Data last updated Wed, 16 May 2012 20:44:46 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2012 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 162035 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012 200 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2012 ...ALETTA SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.4N 113.5W ABOUT 830 MI...1335 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.5 WEST. ALETTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST EXPECTED BY FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ALETTA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Issued at 2100 UTC WED MAY 16 2012 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 162035 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012 2100 UTC WED MAY 16 2012 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 3 9 22 25 36 35 NA TROP DEPRESSION 68 52 49 43 41 40 NA TROPICAL STORM 29 38 28 30 22 24 NA HURRICANE X 1 1 2 1 1 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 1 2 1 1 NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 25KT 25KT 20KT 20KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Issued at 2100 UTC WED MAY 16 2012 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 162031 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012 2100 UTC WED MAY 16 2012 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 113.5W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 113.5W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 113.1W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 11.7N 114.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 12.4N 115.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.1N 115.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.6N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 14.0N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 14.0N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 113.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161731
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED MAY 16 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ALETTA...LOCATED ABOUT 785 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Issued at 800 AM PDT WED MAY 16 2012 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 161434 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012 800 AM PDT WED MAY 16 2012 THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF ALETTA DOES NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR SOME NEW CONVECTIVE GROWTH NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. INTERESTINGLY...THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT SUGGESTIVE OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AS CURRENTLY DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE THE SAME AS EARLIER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO INGEST A MUCH DRIER...STABLE AIR MASS AND BE AFFECTED BY PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR. THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN A STEADY OR PERHAPS EVEN RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW INDICATES THAT ALETTA WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE CENTER OF ALETTA WAS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE OVERNIGHT...BUT A 1145 UTC TRMM PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/08...AND THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AFTER THAT TIME...THE COMBINATION OF A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE AND ANOMALOUS LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD CAUSE ALETTA TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD OR EVEN EASTWARD AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS...AND IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT AFTER THAT IN RESPONSE TO AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE AT THOSE TIMES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 11.8N 112.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 12.1N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 12.6N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 13.0N 115.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 13.5N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 14.1N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z 14.5N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 May 2012 14:33:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 May 2012 14:32:41 GMT